ICT Macro Narrative: Weekly Profiles & Monthly Expansion

You’ve identified a perfect 15-minute Fair Value Gap, the displacement is clear, and the SMT divergence is screaming 'buy.' Yet, moments after you click execute, price stalls, reverses, and hunts your stop before eventually moving toward your target hours later. Why? Because you are trying to navigate a city map without checking the weather forecast. Most intermediate traders get 'chopped up' on lower timeframes because they lack a macro roadmap. By understanding the Monthly candle's anatomy and the Weekly profile's intent, you stop trading random noise and start trading the institutional expansion. This guide will show you how to read the HTF narrative so your 15m entries align with the path of least resistance.

The Monthly PD Array Matrix: Mapping Your Macro Magnet

Before you even look at a 15-minute chart, you need to know where the "big money" is headed. In the ICT methodology, price is always doing one of two things: seeking a liquidity pool or rebalancing an inefficiency. This is the foundation of the Draw on Liquidity (DOL).

Internal vs. External Range Liquidity

Think of the Monthly chart as the ocean's tide. External Range Liquidity (ERL) refers to the old highs and lows—the places where stop losses are resting in bulk. Internal Range Liquidity (IRL) refers to Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and Order Blocks within a previous price move.

Typically, price moves from IRL to ERL or vice-versa. If the Monthly chart has just tapped into a long-term Order Block (IRL), its next likely destination is the previous month's high or a major swing high (ERL).

Identifying the Draw on Liquidity (DOL)

Identifying the DOL is like finding the North Star. If you see a massive Monthly FVG sitting at 1.1050 on EUR/USD and the current price is 1.0800, that FVG is your magnet.

Pro Tip: The 'Magnet Rule' states that price must reach a High Timeframe (HTF) PD Array before a significant narrative shift can occur. Don't look for reversals mid-air; wait for the magnet to be touched.

Example: If EUR/USD is trading at 1.0920 and there is a Monthly Buy-Side Liquidity pool at 1.1000, your daily and weekly bias should remain bullish until that 1.1000 level is cleared. Every 15m short you take before then is a low-probability trade against the macro tide. Learn more about how to read ICT liquidity pools to refine this skill.

The Power of 3 (AMD) on HTF: Predicting the Monthly Candle Anatomy

Every candle, whether it's a 1-minute or a 1-month, follows a specific anatomy: Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution (AMD). When you apply this to the Monthly timeframe, you gain the ability to predict the "long wick" versus the "body expansion."

Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution

The start of the month usually begins with Accumulation around the opening price. Then comes the Manipulation phase—often called the "Judas Swing." This is the wick of the Monthly candle. If the Monthly bias is bullish, price will often drop below the opening price early in the month to trap sellers and activate buy stops.

Predicting the 'Long Wick' vs. the 'Body Expansion'

Once the manipulation phase is over (usually within the first week or two of the month), the Distribution phase begins. This is where the "meat" of the move happens. This is the period where the candle expands rapidly toward the DOL.

Warning: If you are in the first three days of the month and price is aggressively moving away from your DOL, don't panic. It is likely the Monthly wick forming. Check the ICT AMD Strategy for more on how to time these pivots.

According to Investopedia's definition of Accumulation/Distribution, these phases represent the institutional positioning that precedes a major trend. By identifying the Monthly open, you can stay patient during the "wick phase" and go heavy during the "expansion phase."

Weekly Profile Templates: Timing the Weekly High and Low

If the Monthly candle is the roadmap, the Weekly profile is the GPS. There are specific templates that repeat based on the CME Group's Economic Calendar and institutional flow.

The Classic Tuesday Low/High of the Week

In a trending market, the Low of the Week (for a bullish week) or the High of the Week (for a bearish week) often forms during the London or New York session on Tuesday. This is the "Classic Tuesday" profile. If the Monthly narrative is bullish and price drops on Monday and Tuesday morning, you are likely looking at the manipulation phase of the weekly candle.

The Wednesday Mid-Week Reversal and the Economic Calendar

Sometimes, the high or low doesn't form until Wednesday. This usually happens when there is a major red-folder news event like the FOMC or NFP scheduled for mid-to-late week. In these cases, the market remains in a "Seek and Destroy" consolidation until the news provides the catalyst for expansion. This is why the 15m chart is the day trader's Goldilocks zone; it allows you to see these shifts in real-time without the noise of lower timeframes.

Example: If it's Tuesday and EUR/USD is hovering at the Weekly Open with no clear direction, but the CPI report is due Wednesday morning, expect a Wednesday Mid-Week Reversal profile. Avoid heavy positions on Tuesday.

Seasonal Tendencies and Narrative Shifts: When the Environment Changes

Not all months are created equal. The macro narrative is heavily influenced by seasonal tendencies—historical patterns where certain assets trend or reverse during specific times of the year.

Monthly Flow and Seasonal Effects

For instance, the "January Effect" often sets the tone for the entire first quarter. Similarly, Q4 (October–December) is notorious for massive reversals as institutions square their books for the year. Understanding these shifts helps you distinguish between a temporary pullback and a full-scale narrative shift.

Transitioning from Consolidation to Expansion

A narrative shift occurs when price clears a major HTF liquidity pool. Once a Monthly swing high is taken, the market often enters a "Consolidation Profile" as it searches for a new DOL. Trading during these periods is dangerous because price lacks a clear magnet.

Pro Tip: If price is stuck in the middle of a Monthly range (Equilibrium), the probability of a clean Weekly expansion drops significantly. This is when you'll see "Seek and Destroy" profiles that hunt both sides of the market. Use an ICT Market Structure Shift filter to ensure you aren't getting caught in a fake move.

Macro-Based Risk Management: Scaling for the Environment

Professional trading isn't about having a 100% win rate; it's about knowing when to push and when to fold. Your position size should be directly correlated to the macro alignment.

Adjusting Position Sizing for Profile Types

• High Probability: Monthly expansion phase + Classic Tuesday Low/High + Alignment with DOL. (Full Risk: e.g., 1-2%)
• Medium Probability: Price in Monthly consolidation + Mid-week reversal profile. (Reduced Risk: e.g., 0.5%)
• Low Probability: Late-month retracements or "Seek and Destroy" environments. (Stay flat or 0.25% risk)

The Top-Down Execution Workflow

1. Monthly: Identify the DOL and the current phase of the candle (Accumulation, Manipulation, or Distribution).
2. Weekly: Select the likely Weekly profile based on the economic calendar.
3. Daily/15m: Wait for an entry pattern (FVG, Order Block, or SMT) that aligns with the higher-timeframe direction.

Mastering the macro narrative is the difference between being a liquidity provider and a professional trader. By anchoring your 15-minute executions to the Monthly PD Array Matrix and the Weekly Profile templates, you ensure that you are always trading in the direction of institutional flow. We’ve covered how to identify the Draw on Liquidity, how to anticipate the Monthly candle's expansion, and how to adjust your risk based on the market environment. The next time you sit at your charts, zoom out before you zoom in. Ask yourself: Where is the Monthly candle going, and which Weekly profile is currently printing? Use FXNX’s advanced charting tools to overlay these HTF levels and watch how the 'noise' on the 15m chart suddenly starts making sense.

Next Step: Download our 'Weekly Profile Cheat Sheet' and use the FXNX Economic Calendar to identify your next high-probability Tuesday Low/High setup.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Draw on Liquidity (DOL)?

The Draw on Liquidity is the specific price level or zone (like a swing high, swing low, or Fair Value Gap) that the market is currently gravitating toward on a higher timeframe. Identifying the DOL allows you to maintain a consistent bias until that target is reached.

Why does the High or Low of the week often form on Tuesday?

In the ICT Macro Narrative, Monday is often used to establish a range or a fake move. Tuesday's London or NY sessions then provide the "Judas Swing" that creates the actual high or low of the week before the market expands toward its weekly target.

How do I know if the Monthly candle will expand or consolidate?

Look at the Monthly PD Array Matrix. If price has just bounced off an internal range liquidity (like an FVG) and has a clear path toward external range liquidity (an old high/low), expect expansion. If price is sitting at equilibrium with no nearby arrays, expect consolidation.

Can I trade against the Monthly expansion?

You can, but it's much higher risk. Counter-trend trades (retracements) are typically faster, choppier, and offer lower R:R. For consistent growth, it's best to wait for setups that align with the Monthly and Weekly narrative flow.